On February 6th
, the Hablemos con Rusia
alumni club held an Online Discussion Club
on energy diplomacy during international instability. Alumni from Argentina, Colombia, Mexico, Peru, Chile, Uruguay, Venezuela, Paraguay, and Spain participated in the event.
Here are some abstracts from the report made by invited lecturer Evgeny Tipaylov
, PhD, Director of the Institute of Problems of Interdependence:
- Today and tomorrow asymmetric approaches to energy diplomacy are required from both producers and consumers of hydrocarbons. The global trend is diminishing the Western influence on non-western regions, the break-up of the unipolar system, which will result in the shrinking of traditional Western markets and the redistribution of resources. Russia must focus on diversification, on international initiatives like BRICS, the SCO, and the fora of gas- and oil-exporting countries.
- Energy trade between Russia and the West is likely to continue declining and even to stop completely by 2040. The issues of economic interdependence will have a smaller impact on political processes. All parties will have to build new ties.
- In today's confrontation, deterrence instruments include sanctions, restrictions, political and diplomatic pressure on the buyers of the Russian hydrocarbons, conflict ignition in different regions, creation of artificial tensions between Russia and its friendly countries, as well as between exporters and buyers in general. Both public and private instruments will be used to create obstacles to penetrating new markets, which will include unlawful criminal actions against individuals to hinder the building of new business ties.
- Sanctions affect the entire system of international trade and force states and businesses to seek "backdoors", in the first place, for financial transactions. This necessitates the creation of a global alternative structure for financial transactions. Such a new structure would serve the purposes of energy trade and energy diplomacy.
- The development and acceptance of a model law to regulate agreements between energy traders and buyers is another important goal. It is also necessary to create new arbitration forms for commercial disputes. The new legal mechanisms must be immune to sanctions.
- Another goal is the formation and development of efficient PR tools to motivate contract partners and adequately inform them of opportunities and risks.
- The process of "energy transition" and the "green agenda", i.e. transition to a low-carbon economy, are global trends, too. The main technical components there are hydrogen production, carbon capture, and the use of certain types of renewable energy sources. Russia and other energy producers, including BRICS countries, should focus on a gradual transition to the new technological paradigm to avoid a global energy crisis, as was the case in Europe in 2021-2022 (caused by improper regulation).
The participants of the Online Discussion Club from Latin America expressed their interest in the multilateral cooperation among BRICS countries in the energy sphere, as well as the potential of energy diplomacy in the context of the SDG. They also discussed the issues of nuclear research in energy diplomacy, the problems of controlling gas deposits during the Middle East conflict, the latest technologies of oil and gas production, and the International North-South Transport Corridor.
Watch the seminar in Russian on RuTube