Model Marshall Plan
However, claims of "official Ukraine" against the West date even earlier. The Ukrainian President had already called on participants at the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos and the international community to help his country finance reconstruction. Already then, the cost was estimated at more than 500 billion US dollars
In keeping with American tradition, plans are already in place for the reconstruction of Ukraine. Suggestions are provided by the authors of a research report recently published by the London-based think tank "Centre for Economic Policy Research" (CEPR). In "A Blueprint for the Reconstruction of Ukraine"
the authors also take their cue from historical reconstruction projects. Among them: The Marshall Plan, the reconstruction of Afghanistan and Iraq, reconstruction projects after natural disasters - and the reunification of Germany: Then, we argue that the reconstruction should include three distinct phases: i) emergency response (akin to the response to a natural disaster hitting a country); ii) rapid restoration of critical infrastructure and services to revive the basic functions of the economy and the government; iii) laying foundations for a rapid, sustained growth trajectory.
It should be noted that in numerous EU states, massive propaganda around Ukraine has been carried out by governments and the system-compliant media. This makes a reasonable debate difficult and obscures the view of facts. However, it is precisely these facts that need to be examined in order to assess the position of this country, Ukraine, which is to receive such generous support.
Despite major reform efforts, Ukraine ranked
122 out of 180 in Transparency International's corruption index before February 2022. The Ukrainian government has already built digital platforms for government services to make corruption impossible, said the Head of the Ukrainian Government at the donors' conference in Switzerland. The Ukrainian President who joined the event by video promised
: "maximum transparency" in all projects. Critical voices in various European countries are increasing with regard to the undoubted corruption in Ukraine but also in view of the country's weak economic data.
In the wake of the global corona pandemic, the Ukrainian economy shrunk by 4% in 2020. Private consumption (75% of GDP) was by far the most important economic driver. This recovered unexpectedly quickly and already rose by 0.5% in 2020 as a whole. Forecasts of 2020 said that this consumption enthusiasm would continue in the first half of 2021 thanks to rising real incomes and persistently high cash payments by Ukrainians living abroad. Regarding foreign trade, Ukraine would benefit from rising world market prices for raw materials and strong demand from China.
Things have changed: According to the World Bank, Ukraine's economy will shrink by an estimated 45.1% this year. The International Monetary Fund IMF estimates that Ukraine will need around 4.8 billion US dollars by the end of 2022. Economic reconstruction, once the conflict ends, will require substantially more funds over the next several years. Also of concern is Ukraine's external debt
, which stood at 57 billion US dollars at the end of 2021. This included 13.4 billion US dollars owed to the IMF, 6.5 billion US dollars to bilateral official creditors, and 22.7 million US dollars in Eurobonds.